Baltika 1-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Baltika take on Rubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Rubin travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 August 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baltika stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baltika have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baltika at Rostec Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
Rubin — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rubin have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rubin's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Rubin's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Baltika's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Baltika, 3 for Rubin and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Rubin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Baltika trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Rubin trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 41% versus Rubin 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 32% | Rubin 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.22 xG and Rubin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.999 / defence 1.010 | Rubin attack 0.939 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.277. Data: 34 Baltika games / 34 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 33% | Draw 34% | Rubin 33%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Rubin 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Baltika 40% | Rubin 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 33% | Draw 34% | Rubin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Baltika 1.22 / Rubin 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.999 / def 1.010 | Rubin attack 0.939 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Rubin xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Rubin kick off?
Baltika vs Rubin kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 24 August 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Baltika 1 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Baltika vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Rubin part of?
Baltika vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 33% chance of winning, Rubin a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Baltika and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
Record (4 meetings): Baltika 1W | Draws 0 | Rubin 3W.
What form are Baltika and Rubin in?
Baltika (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Rubin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baltika's attack at 1.00x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
34%
2.94
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
Rubin xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Baltika and 1.21 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 13W 13D 8L from 34 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baltika, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 10L across 34 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 1.53 PPG, Rubin on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 8W 5D 4L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rubin's away record stands at 5W 5D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 1.00 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Rubin in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Early Season
Rubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Rubin in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 13W 13D 8L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Rubin have gone 12W 12D 10L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Rubin away?
Baltika's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.71 PPG; Rubin away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Baltika or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Rubin in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baltika and Rubin runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Baltika won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baltika's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 1, Rubin have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Baltika 1-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 41%, Rubin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Baltika) and 35% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Rubin in 35%; Rubin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Baltika's recent matches and 41% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Baltika's recent games and 35% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Rubin tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baltika and Rubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Baltika and Rubin drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.22 xG and Rubin 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Rubin attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 33% | Draw 34% | Rubin 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 32%, Rubin 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Rubin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 1.53 PPG, Rubin 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.