Baltika 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baltika vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baltika host CSKA Moscow at Rostec Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika at Rostec Arena this season: 5W 4D 0L from 9 home games — 2.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rostec Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, CSKA Moscow stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Baltika at 1.90 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baltika, 2 for CSKA Moscow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Baltika in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 30% versus CSKA Moscow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 15% | CSKA Moscow 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.18 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.849 / defence 0.894 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.904 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.050. Data: 20 Baltika games / 50 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | CSKA Moscow 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baltika are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 33% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Baltika 1.18 / CSKA Moscow 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.849 / def 0.894 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.904 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Baltika (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.85
CSKA Moscow xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Baltika vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Baltika 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Baltika vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Baltika vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 44% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Baltika and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and CSKA Moscow?
Record (3 meetings): Baltika 1W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Baltika and CSKA Moscow in?
Baltika (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baltika's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
44%
2.30
30%
3.33
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.03
0.85
CSKA Moscow xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Baltika and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Baltika and 0.85 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 9W 9D 2L from 20 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 6L across 20 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 1.80 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 5W 4D 0L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.45 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.55 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 9W 9D 2L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 11W 3D 6L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Baltika's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.11 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Baltika or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baltika and CSKA Moscow runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baltika's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Baltika
0
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and CSKA Moscow?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 2, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when CSKA Moscow 2-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 33%, CSKA Moscow 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Baltika and 44% for CSKA Moscow.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Baltika's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baltika edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.18 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.85 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 0.89 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 44% | Draw 30% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 15%, CSKA Moscow 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 1.80 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baltika win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.