Akhmat 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Spartak Moscow travel to Akhmat Arena to take on Akhmat. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 March 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat at Akhmat Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spartak Moscow — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Akhmat, 1 for Spartak Moscow and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 53% versus Spartak Moscow 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 45% | Spartak Moscow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.24 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.909 / defence 1.130 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.122 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.081. Data: 51 Akhmat games / 51 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 31% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 38%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Spartak Moscow 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 60% | Spartak Moscow 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 31% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Akhmat 1.24 / Spartak Moscow 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.909 / def 1.130 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.122 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Spartak Moscow xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
Akhmat 0 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 31% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Akhmat and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Spartak Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): Akhmat 1W | Draws 4 | Spartak Moscow 1W.
What form are Akhmat and Spartak Moscow in?
Akhmat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.91x the league average against Spartak Moscow's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
31%
3.20
31%
3.20
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.61
1.37
Spartak Moscow xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.37 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Akhmat have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 14D 24L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 27W 12D 12L from 51 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Akhmat.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Akhmat have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 8W 7D 9L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's season.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.61 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 13W 14D 24L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 27W 12D 12L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Spartak Moscow's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.21 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akhmat and Spartak Moscow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spartak Moscow have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Akhmat's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Akhmat
5
Draws
4
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 1, Spartak Moscow have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Akhmat 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 58%, Spartak Moscow 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Akhmat) and 42% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow in 38%; Spartak Moscow in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Akhmat's recent matches and 42% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Akhmat's recent games and 42% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Akhmat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Spartak Moscow finished level at 0-0 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.24 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.37 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Akhmat fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 31% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 38%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 45%, Spartak Moscow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.