Akhmat 4-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Akhmat at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Khimki at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 5W 0D 3L at Akhmat Arena — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Akhmat carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Akhmat have won 0, Khimki 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Khimki winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Akhmat trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Khimki trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 59% versus Khimki 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 59% | Khimki 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.60 xG and Khimki 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.949 / defence 0.977 | Khimki attack 0.653 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.152. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Akhmat games / 17 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 57% | Draw 27% | Khimki 16%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Khimki 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Akhmat (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 50% | Khimki 38% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 57% | Draw 27% | Khimki 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Akhmat 1.60 / Khimki 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.949 / def 0.977 | Khimki attack 0.653 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Khimki xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Khimki kick off?
Akhmat vs Khimki kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Akhmat 4 - 1 Khimki.
Where is Akhmat vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Khimki part of?
Akhmat vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 57% chance of winning, Khimki a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Akhmat and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Khimki?
Record (1 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 0 | Khimki 1W.
What form are Akhmat and Khimki in?
Akhmat (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Khimki (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.95x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.73
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.34
0.74
Khimki xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
30.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.74 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 0D 9L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (2W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Akhmat's home form reads 5W 0D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 0.88 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Khimki in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Khimki in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 8W 0D 9L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 8D 7L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Khimki away?
Akhmat's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.88 PPG; Khimki away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Khimki in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akhmat and Khimki runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Akhmat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Akhmat
2
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 3, Khimki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khimki 1-1 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Khimki?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 50%, Khimki 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Akhmat) and 62% (Khimki). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki in 38%; Khimki in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Akhmat's recent matches and 38% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Akhmat's matches and 62% of Khimki's.
Do Akhmat and Khimki tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Khimki in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Akhmat run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Khimki 4-1 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.60 xG and Khimki 0.74 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Khimki attack 0.65 / defence 1.42, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 57% | Draw 27% | Khimki 16%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 59%, Khimki 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Khimki's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.