Akhmat 1-7 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Akhmat face Baltika.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Baltika at Akhmat Arena in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akhmat stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Akhmat at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Baltika — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Baltika away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 0.80 PPG, Baltika 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Akhmat, 1 for Baltika and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Akhmat 0–1 Baltika — a Baltika win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Baltika in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 50% versus Baltika 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 46% | Baltika 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.06 xG and Baltika 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.822 / defence 1.004 | Baltika attack 0.592 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.080. Baltika's attack rating of 0.592 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Akhmat's last 52 games and Baltika's last 22.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 37% | Baltika 20%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.33 | Draw 2.68 | Baltika 5.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Baltika's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Akhmat's last 10 home games and Baltika's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Akhmat 50% (last 10 home games) | Baltika 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 37% | Baltika 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Akhmat 1.06 / Baltika 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.822 / def 1.004 | Baltika attack 0.592 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Baltika xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika FAQs
What time does Akhmat vs Baltika kick off?
Akhmat vs Baltika kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Baltika?
Akhmat 1 - 7 Baltika.
Where is Akhmat vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Baltika part of?
Akhmat vs Baltika is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 43% chance of winning, Baltika a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Akhmat and Baltika will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Akhmat vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Baltika's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Akhmat's last 52 games and Baltika's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
43%
2.33
37%
2.68
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Akhmat xG
Total xG
1.70
0.64
Baltika xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.64 for Baltika, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat's recent record stands at 5W 5D 12L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 13L across 22 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akhmat on 0.91 PPG, Baltika on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 3W 3D 5L from their last 11 home games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baltika's away record stands at 0W 2D 9L across their last 11 away games, a 0.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 0.64 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika in 27%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Baltika
Blended
Akhmat (Home) vs Baltika (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akhmat
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika Form FAQs
What form are Akhmat and Baltika in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Baltika have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Baltika away?
Akhmat's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.09 PPG; Baltika away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when Baltika won Akhmat 1-7 Baltika.
Akhmat's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Baltika?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Akhmat have won 0, Baltika have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Baltika last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Akhmat 0-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baltika see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 54%, Baltika 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Akhmat) and 27% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Akhmat have failed to score in 27% of games; Baltika in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akhmat vs Baltika Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akhmat and Baltika matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Akhmat's recent matches and 27% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Akhmat and Baltika matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Akhmat's recent games and 27% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Baltika matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Akhmat's recent matches and 46% of Baltika's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baltika run riot with a 1-7 hammering of Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Akhmat 1-7 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.06 xG and Baltika 0.64 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. Baltika outscored their 0.64 projection by 6.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Baltika attack 0.59 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 43% | Draw 37% | Baltika 20%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Baltika win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 46%, Baltika 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Baltika's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 0.91 PPG, Baltika 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baltika win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 0.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.