Tondela 0-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tondela face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Tondela welcome Benfica to Estádio João Cardoso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tondela — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 6L across 9 games at Estádio João Cardoso this term (0.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Tondela's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Tondela trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
Benfica trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 32% versus Benfica 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 58% | Benfica 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 0.65 xG and Benfica 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.665 / defence 1.109 | Benfica attack 1.387 / defence 0.632. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.260. Tondela's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.632 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.387 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Tondela games / 53 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 12% | Draw 20% | Benfica 68%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 8.33 | Draw 5.00 | Benfica 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Tondela 33% | Benfica 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 12% | Draw 20% | Benfica 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 41% | xG Tondela 0.65 / Benfica 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.665 / def 1.109 | Benfica attack 1.387 / def 0.632 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Benfica (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Benfica xG
41%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs Benfica kick off?
Tondela vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs Benfica?
Tondela 0 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Tondela vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs Benfica part of?
Tondela vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 12% chance of winning, Benfica a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Tondela and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Tondela 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 3W.
What form are Tondela and Benfica in?
Tondela (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Tondela's attack at 0.67x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Tondela's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
12%
8.56
20%
4.89
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.1%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.59
1.94
Benfica xG
8.56
12%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
2%
59.40
35%
2.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 14.5 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Tondela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Tondela and 1.94 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tondela come into this having played 19 games, going 3W 3D 13L for 0.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.37 PPG from 19 outings (13W 6D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.74 PPG clear of Tondela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tondela's home form reads 1W 2D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.56 points per game from 9 outings (7W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tondela are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.21 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 3W 3D 13L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Benfica have gone 13W 6D 0L in their last 19 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 0.56 PPG; Benfica away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Tondela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tondela have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Benfica in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tondela and Benfica runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Benfica won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tondela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Tondela
1
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Tondela have won 0, Benfica have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Tondela 0-0 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tondela see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Benfica see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Tondela 33% BTTS, Benfica 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Tondela) and 67% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 67%; Tondela have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Tondela's recent matches and 33% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tondela vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Tondela's matches and 67% of Benfica's.
Stalemate at Tondela's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 20, as Tondela and Benfica drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.65 xG and Benfica 1.94 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Benfica landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.67 / defence 1.11 against Benfica attack 1.39 / defence 0.63, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 12% | Draw 20% | Benfica 68%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 58%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 63% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tondela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.