Santa Clara 3-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Santa Clara welcome Vizela to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio de São Miguel this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vizela stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Vizela have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Santa Clara have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Santa Clara register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vizela in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Santa Clara, 0 for Vizela and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Vizela in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Santa Clara 62% and Vizela 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 62% | Vizela 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.71 xG and Vizela 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.030 / defence 1.193 | Vizela attack 0.938 / defence 1.574. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.335. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.574 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Santa Clara games / 24 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 41% | Draw 27% | Vizela 32%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Vizela 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 60% | Vizela 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 41% | Draw 27% | Vizela 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Santa Clara 1.71 / Vizela 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.030 / def 1.193 | Vizela attack 0.938 / def 1.574 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Vizela xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Vizela kick off?
Santa Clara vs Vizela kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Santa Clara 3 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Santa Clara vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Vizela part of?
Santa Clara vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 41% chance of winning, Vizela a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Santa Clara and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Vizela?
Record (1 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 1 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Santa Clara and Vizela in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Vizela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Vizela's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.68
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
3.20
1.49
Vizela xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
6%
17.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.49 for Vizela, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 8D 10L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (5W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.08 PPG, Vizela on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.08 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Vizela in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Vizela have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Vizela away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.64 PPG; Vizela away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting Vizela specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
1
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Vizela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Santa Clara 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Vizela?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 54%, Vizela 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Santa Clara and 73% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara have failed to score in 27% of games; Vizela in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Santa Clara's games and 64% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Santa Clara's matches and 73% of Vizela's.
Do Santa Clara and Vizela tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Vizela in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Vizela 3-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.71 xG and Vizela 1.49 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Vizela attack 0.94 / defence 1.57, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 41% | Draw 27% | Vizela 32%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 62%, Vizela 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.08 PPG, Vizela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.