Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Benfica encounter.

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Analysis

Benfica make the trip to Estádio de São Miguel to face Santa Clara in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Santa Clara (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Santa Clara have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Santa Clara are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Benfica have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Benfica's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Benfica have the stronger record — 5 wins to Santa Clara's 0, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Santa Clara 1–4 Benfica — a Benfica win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Benfica have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Santa Clara — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Benfica — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 43% versus Benfica 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 38% | Benfica 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.817 / defence 1.017 | Benfica attack 1.148 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.194. Data: built from Santa Clara's last 21 games and Benfica's last 55.

Result probabilities: Santa Clara 30% | Draw 28% | Benfica 42%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.33 | Draw 3.60 | Benfica 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Benfica 5 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Santa Clara 40% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).

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