Portimonense 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portimonense have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portimonense at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Famalicao away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Portimonense, 1.50 for Famalicao — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Portimonense lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Portimonense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 40% versus Famalicao 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 37% | Famalicao 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.17 xG and Famalicao 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.956 / defence 1.017 | Famalicao attack 0.776 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.187. Data: 38 Portimonense games / 38 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 41% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 29%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Famalicao 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Portimonense as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Portimonense 70% | Famalicao 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 41% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Portimonense 1.17 / Famalicao 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.956 / def 1.017 | Famalicao attack 0.776 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Famalicao xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Famalicao kick off?
Portimonense vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Portimonense 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Portimonense vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Famalicao part of?
Portimonense vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 41% chance of winning, Famalicao a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Portimonense and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Famalicao?
Record (2 meetings): Portimonense 2W | Draws 0 | Famalicao 0W.
What form are Portimonense and Famalicao in?
Portimonense (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Famalicao (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.96x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.78x) against Portimonense's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.38
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.11
0.94
Famalicao xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Portimonense and 0.94 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 8D 17L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (10W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Portimonense against 1.13 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Portimonense's home form reads 5W 4D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.21 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Early Season
Famalicao
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Famalicao away?
Portimonense's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.00 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Famalicao in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won 0-3 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Portimonense
2
Draws
1
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Famalicao?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 3, Famalicao have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Famalicao 2-2 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Famalicao?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 53%, Famalicao 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Portimonense) and 53% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 32% of games; Famalicao in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Portimonense's recent matches and 53% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Portimonense's recent games and 53% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Famalicao tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.17 xG and Famalicao 0.94 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Famalicao attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 41% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 29%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 37%, Famalicao 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 1.24 PPG, Famalicao 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Portimonense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.