Portimonense 1-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portimonense vs Benfica encounter.

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Match Analysis

Portimonense host Benfica at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Primeira Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Portimonense — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Portimonense have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Portimonense are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Benfica have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Portimonense have won 1, Benfica 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Portimonense 1–5 Benfica — a Benfica win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Portimonense in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 38% versus Benfica 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 38% | Benfica 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.17 xG and Benfica 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.815 / defence 1.271 | Benfica attack 1.379 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.191. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.379, which lifts their away xG to 2.09. Portimonense's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Benfica's projected output up. Data: built from Portimonense's last 39 games and Benfica's last 39.

Result probabilities: Portimonense 21% | Draw 21% | Benfica 58%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 4.81 | Draw 4.81 | Benfica 1.71. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.17 / 2.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Portimonense's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Portimonense 50% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).

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