Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to face Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 23 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Estoril are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Pacos Ferreira have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Estoril in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.12 xG and Estoril 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 1.042 / defence 1.015 | Estoril attack 0.966 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.076. Data: 2 Pacos Ferreira games / 2 Estoril games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 29% | Estoril 34%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Estoril 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacos Ferreira are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estoril (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 29% | Estoril 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.12 / Estoril 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 1.042 / def 1.015 | Estoril attack 0.966 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Estoril xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Pacos Ferreira 1 - 3 Estoril.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 37% chance of winning, Estoril a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Estoril?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Estoril in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L. Estoril (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pacos Ferreira's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.97x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.41
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.17
1.05
Estoril xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.05 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estoril's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estoril are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pacos Ferreira.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacos Ferreira have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Estoril in 0%.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Estoril in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Estoril in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Estoril have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Pacos Ferreira or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Estoril in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 0-3 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
2
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Estoril have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Estoril 1-3 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 0% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 0% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Estoril cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Pacos Ferreira 1-3 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.12 xG and Estoril 1.05 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Estoril outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Estoril attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 37% | Draw 29% | Estoril 34%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 50%, Estoril 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pacos Ferreira shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.