Pacos Ferreira 0-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pacos Ferreira and Arouca meet at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games (1.12 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
Arouca (all games): 1W 2D 5L across 8 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.62 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Arouca have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Pacos Ferreira's 1.12 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Arouca's 0.62 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 50% versus Arouca 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 50% | Arouca 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.42 xG and Arouca 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.990 / defence 1.175 | Arouca attack 0.750 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.238. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Pacos Ferreira games / 8 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 41% | Draw 34% | Arouca 25%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Arouca 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacos Ferreira at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 50% | Arouca 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 41% | Draw 34% | Arouca 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.42 / Arouca 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.990 / def 1.175 | Arouca attack 0.750 / def 1.451 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Arouca xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 41% chance of winning, Arouca a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Arouca in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Arouca (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pacos Ferreira's attack rating (0.99) and Arouca's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.75x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
41%
2.45
34%
2.94
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.51
1.09
Arouca xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.09 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca's form line: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pacos Ferreira are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arouca.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pacos Ferreira have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Arouca have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacos Ferreira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arouca in 62%.
Defensively: Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Arouca in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Arouca have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Arouca away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.25 PPG; Arouca away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Arouca in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
3
Draws
0
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Arouca?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Arouca have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Arouca 1-1 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Arouca?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pacos Ferreira see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 50%, Arouca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Pacos Ferreira and 75% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Arouca in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 50% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pacos Ferreira's matches and 75% of Arouca's.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Arouca tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Arouca in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pacos Ferreira's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira and Arouca finished level at 0-0 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.42 xG and Arouca 1.09 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Arouca attack 0.75 / defence 1.45, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 41% | Draw 34% | Arouca 25%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 50%, Arouca 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacos Ferreira arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.