Maritimo 1-3 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Maritimo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Tondela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio dos Barreiros plays host to Maritimo versus Tondela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 3 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Maritimo have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio dos Barreiros — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tondela (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Maritimo's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Tondela's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Maritimo, 1 for Tondela and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–4 with Tondela winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Maritimo — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games).
Tondela — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 56% versus Tondela 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 41% | Tondela 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.30 xG and Tondela 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.795 / defence 0.955 | Tondela attack 0.728 / defence 1.594. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.277. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.594 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Maritimo games / 27 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 43% | Draw 34% | Tondela 23%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Tondela 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Maritimo as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 40% | Tondela 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 43% | Draw 34% | Tondela 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Maritimo 1.30 / Tondela 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.795 / def 0.955 | Tondela attack 0.728 / def 1.594 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Tondela xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Tondela kick off?
Maritimo vs Tondela kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Tondela?
Maritimo 1 - 3 Tondela.
Where is Maritimo vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Tondela part of?
Maritimo vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 43% chance of winning, Tondela a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Maritimo and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Tondela?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Tondela 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Tondela in?
Maritimo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Tondela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Maritimo's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Tondela's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.73x) against Maritimo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
43%
2.32
34%
2.92
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.18
0.89
Tondela xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.89 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Maritimo have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 8W 9D 10L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tondela's form line: 6W 4D 17L from 27 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Maritimo are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tondela.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Maritimo have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, Tondela have gone 2W 2D 9L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Maritimo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 1.22 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Tondela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Tondela in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Tondela have gone 6W 4D 17L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Tondela away?
Maritimo's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.15 PPG; Tondela away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Maritimo
0
Draws
2
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Tondela?
From 2 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Tondela have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Maritimo 1-3 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Tondela?
Tondela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 46%, Tondela 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Maritimo) and 62% (Tondela).
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Maritimo have failed to score in 38% of games; Tondela in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Maritimo's recent matches and 62% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Maritimo's recent games and 62% of Tondela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Tondela tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Tondela in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat Maritimo 1-3 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.30 xG and Tondela 0.89 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Tondela outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against Tondela attack 0.73 / defence 1.59, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 43% | Draw 34% | Tondela 23%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Tondela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 41%, Tondela 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Tondela's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Maritimo arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Tondela winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Maritimo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.