Maritimo vs Arouca – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Arouca at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to to face Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 2W 2D 3L across 7 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.14 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Maritimo's home record at : 1W 1D 1L from 3 Primeira Liga appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Arouca have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Arouca are 0.66 PPG clear of Maritimo in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.14). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Maritimo, 2 for Arouca and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Maritimo — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 71% versus Arouca 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 71% | Arouca 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.02 xG and Arouca 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.836 / defence 1.154 | Arouca attack 0.886 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.320. Data: 7 Maritimo games / 41 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 28% | Draw 27% | Arouca 44%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Arouca 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 33% | Arouca 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 28% | Draw 27% | Arouca 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Maritimo 1.02 / Arouca 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.836 / def 1.154 | Arouca attack 0.886 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Arouca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Arouca xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Arouca kick off?
Maritimo vs Arouca is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027.
What competition is Maritimo vs Arouca part of?
Maritimo vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 28% chance of winning, Arouca a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Maritimo and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
Record (5 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 2 | Arouca 2W.
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Arouca (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.84x the league average against Arouca's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.89x) against Maritimo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
28%
3.54
27%
3.65
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.37
1.35
Arouca xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.35 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arouca by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arouca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Maritimo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Arouca in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Early Season
Arouca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Arouca have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Arouca away?
Maritimo's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.33 PPG; Arouca away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Arouca in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Arouca have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Maritimo
2
Draws
2
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
From 5 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Arouca have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Arouca see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Maritimo) and 33% (Arouca) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Maritimo) and 33% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arouca in 33%; Maritimo have failed to score in 33% of games; Arouca in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Maritimo's recent matches and 33% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Maritimo's recent games and 33% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Arouca tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Arouca in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.