Vitória SC 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vitória SC face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Vitória SC welcome Benfica to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Vitória SC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Vitória SC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Vitória SC are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Vitória SC.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Vitória SC trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benfica trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 42% versus Benfica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 44% | Benfica 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.01 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 1.097 / defence 0.957 | Benfica attack 1.089 / defence 0.693. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.278. Benfica's defence strength of 0.693 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Vitória SC games / 43 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 27% | Draw 31% | Benfica 42%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Benfica 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vitória SC 50% | Benfica 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 27% | Draw 31% | Benfica 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Vitória SC 1.01 / Benfica 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 1.097 / def 0.957 | Benfica attack 1.089 / def 0.693 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Benfica (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Benfica xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitória SC vs Benfica kick off?
Vitória SC vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Vitória SC 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Vitória SC vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Benfica part of?
Vitória SC vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 27% chance of winning, Benfica a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vitória SC and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Vitória SC vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
Record (8 meetings): Vitória SC 0W | Draws 2 | Benfica 6W.
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in?
Vitória SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
27%
3.75
31%
3.21
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
Benfica xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Vitória SC and 1.33 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitória SC's recent record stands at 17W 14D 12L from 43 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 31W 8D 4L across 43 games — 2.35 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitória SC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitória SC have managed 11W 7D 3L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 14W 4D 3L across 21 trips, a 2.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitória SC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.37 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitória SC and Benfica in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 17W 14D 12L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Benfica have gone 31W 8D 4L in their last 43 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 1.90 PPG; Benfica away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitória SC's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Vitória SC
2
Draws
8
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Vitória SC have won 0, Benfica have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Benfica 3-0 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Vitória SC and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitória SC 48%, Benfica 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Vitória SC) and 52% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Benfica in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitória SC play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 48% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitória SC vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Vitória SC's recent games and 52% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitória SC and Benfica tend to score early?
Vitória SC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Benfica in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vitória SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Vitória SC 0-3 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.01 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vitória SC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Benfica attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 27% | Draw 31% | Benfica 42%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 44%, Benfica 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.