GIL Vicente 0-0 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Braga (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIL Vicente face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SC Braga — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Braga have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Braga's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
SC Braga have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against GIL Vicente's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with SC Braga winning.
It is worth noting that SC Braga have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 49% versus SC Braga 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 51% | SC Braga 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.50 xG and SC Braga 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.203 / defence 1.124 | SC Braga attack 1.157 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.168. Data: 37 GIL Vicente games / 37 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 38% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 38%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | SC Braga 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 50% | SC Braga 40%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 38% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG GIL Vicente 1.50 / SC Braga 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.203 / def 1.124 | SC Braga attack 1.157 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.52
SC Braga xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kick off?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
GIL Vicente 0 - 0 SC Braga.
Where is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga part of?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 38% chance of winning, SC Braga a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both GIL Vicente and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
Record (6 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 1 | SC Braga 4W.
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.13
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
3.02
1.52
SC Braga xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.52 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIL Vicente come into this having played 37 games, going 10W 10D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 2.03 PPG from 37 outings (23W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Braga, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIL Vicente's home form reads 7W 7D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.11 points per game from 18 outings (12W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.05 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Braga in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
SC Braga
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 23W 6D 8L in their last 37 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.56 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, SC Braga have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 56%, SC Braga 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIL Vicente) and 72% (SC Braga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GIL Vicente's games and 61% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of GIL Vicente's matches and 72% of SC Braga's.
Do GIL Vicente and SC Braga tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIL Vicente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 4, as GIL Vicente and SC Braga drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.50 xG and SC Braga 1.52 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against SC Braga attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 38% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 38%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, SC Braga 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.