GIL Vicente 3-3 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 55%, yet in-form SC Braga provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIL Vicente vs SC Braga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — GIL Vicente are significantly better at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos than their overall form suggests.
SC Braga — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, GIL Vicente have won 1, SC Braga 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with SC Braga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus SC Braga 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | SC Braga 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 2.56 xG and SC Braga 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.427 / defence 0.995 | SC Braga attack 1.410 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.258. GIL Vicente carry an above-average attack strength of 1.427 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 GIL Vicente games / 42 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 55% | Draw 19% | SC Braga 26%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | SC Braga 3.85. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Braga (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 30% | SC Braga 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 55% | Draw 19% | SC Braga 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 76% | xG GIL Vicente 2.56 / SC Braga 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.427 / def 0.995 | SC Braga attack 1.410 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.76
SC Braga xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kick off?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
GIL Vicente 3 - 3 SC Braga.
Where is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga part of?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 55% chance of winning, SC Braga a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both GIL Vicente and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
Record (4 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 3W.
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (6.8%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
55%
1.81
19%
5.38
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
4.33
1.76
SC Braga xG
1.81
55%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.25
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
8%
12.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
2%
49.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.76 for SC Braga, a combined total of 4.33.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIL Vicente come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 7D 22L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 2.24 PPG from 42 outings (30W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIL Vicente's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.19 points per game from 21 outings (15W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.26 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 13W 7D 22L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 30W 4D 8L in their last 42 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.57 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.19 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SC Braga in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, SC Braga have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 38%, SC Braga 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (GIL Vicente) and 76% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; SC Braga in 33%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 57% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 76% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and SC Braga tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and SC Braga share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 9, as GIL Vicente and SC Braga drew 3-3 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 2.56 xG and SC Braga 1.76 xG, a combined 4.33. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SC Braga outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.43 / defence 0.99 against SC Braga attack 1.41 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 55% | Draw 19% | SC Braga 26%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, SC Braga 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
SC Braga's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.