GIL Vicente 0-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 7 October 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
Estoril have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estoril have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.50 for Estoril. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: GIL Vicente 0W, Estoril 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 52% versus Estoril 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 52% | Estoril 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.96 xG and Estoril 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.838 / defence 1.043 | Estoril attack 0.990 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.063. Data: 42 GIL Vicente games / 42 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 30% | Estoril 38%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 40% | Estoril 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 30% | Estoril 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG GIL Vicente 0.96 / Estoril 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.838 / def 1.043 | Estoril attack 0.990 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Estoril (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Estoril xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Estoril kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
GIL Vicente 0 - 1 Estoril.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Estoril part of?
GIL Vicente vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 31% chance of winning, Estoril a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both GIL Vicente and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Record (2 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 2 | Estoril 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Estoril (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.84x the league average against Estoril's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.99x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
31%
3.20
30%
3.31
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.06
1.10
Estoril xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.10 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 15W 15D 12L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 12W 15D 15L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.21 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (7W 8D 6L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 7W 5D 9L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.10 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Estoril in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 15W 15D 12L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Estoril have gone 12W 15D 15L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Estoril away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.38 PPG; Estoril away: 1.24 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Estoril in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
4
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Estoril have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 43%, Estoril 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (GIL Vicente) and 33% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Estoril in 33%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 29% of games; Estoril in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 38% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 33% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Estoril tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Estoril in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out GIL Vicente 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.96 xG and Estoril 1.10 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Estoril attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 30% | Estoril 38%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 52%, Estoril 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.43 PPG, Estoril 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.