GIL Vicente 2-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Belenenses encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Belenenses at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
GIL Vicente — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Belenenses stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Belenenses have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, GIL Vicente have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GIL Vicente, 0 for Belenenses and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
GIL Vicente in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Belenenses in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Belenenses 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 54% | Belenenses 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.65 xG and Belenenses 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.078 / defence 1.123 | Belenenses attack 0.520 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.378. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 GIL Vicente games / 22 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 56% | Draw 26% | Belenenses 17%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Belenenses 5.88. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Belenenses 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 56% | Draw 26% | Belenenses 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG GIL Vicente 1.65 / Belenenses 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.078 / def 1.123 | Belenenses attack 0.520 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Belenenses xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Belenenses kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Belenenses kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Belenenses?
GIL Vicente 2 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Belenenses part of?
GIL Vicente vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 56% chance of winning, Belenenses a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GIL Vicente and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 1 | Belenenses 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Belenenses in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Belenenses (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.08x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
56%
1.77
26%
3.79
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.46
0.80
Belenenses xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
30.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.80 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Belenenses?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 10W 7D 5L from 22 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Belenenses, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 13L across 22 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Belenenses heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Belenenses's away record stands at 0W 4D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.64 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Belenenses in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 3W 6D 13L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Belenenses away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.36 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.36 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Belenenses been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Belenenses in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
1
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 1, Belenenses have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Belenenses?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 46%, Belenenses 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (GIL Vicente) and 18% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente have failed to score in 27% of games; Belenenses in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 27% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 18% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Belenenses tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Belenenses.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Belenenses 2-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.65 xG and Belenenses 0.80 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Belenenses landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Belenenses attack 0.52 / defence 1.40, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 56% | Draw 26% | Belenenses 17%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 54%, Belenenses 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Belenenses's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.