Famalicao 1-2 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Famalicao welcome Chaves to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Chaves have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Famalicao have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1, Chaves 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Famalicao trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Chaves trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 47% versus Chaves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 53% | Chaves 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.11 xG and Chaves 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.933 / defence 0.959 | Chaves attack 0.758 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.045. Data: 64 Famalicao games / 30 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 31% | Chaves 25%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Chaves 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Chaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 44% | Draw 31% | Chaves 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Famalicao 1.11 / Chaves 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.933 / def 0.959 | Chaves attack 0.758 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Chaves xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Chaves kick off?
Famalicao vs Chaves kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Chaves?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Chaves.
Where is Famalicao vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Chaves part of?
Famalicao vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 44% chance of winning, Chaves a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Famalicao and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Chaves?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 0 | Chaves 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Chaves in?
Famalicao (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.93) and Chaves's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.18
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.87
0.76
Chaves xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.76 for Chaves, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao's recent record stands at 15W 3D 14L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 11L across 32 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 1.50 PPG, Chaves on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 10W 1D 5L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Famalicao are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chaves's away record stands at 5W 5D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Chaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Chaves in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 15W 3D 14L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Chaves have gone 11W 10D 11L in their last 32 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Chaves away?
Famalicao's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.94 PPG; Chaves away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Chaves in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Famalicao and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Famalicao's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Famalicao
1
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Chaves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Chaves 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Chaves?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 38%, Chaves 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 31% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Chaves in 31%; Famalicao have failed to score in 31% of games; Chaves in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Famalicao's recent matches and 38% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Famalicao's recent games and 31% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Chaves tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chaves in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chaves defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.11 xG and Chaves 0.76 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chaves outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Chaves attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 44% | Draw 31% | Chaves 25%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Chaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 53%, Chaves 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.50 PPG, Chaves 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.