Estrela 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estrela vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio José Gomes to take on Estrela. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estrela have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela at Estádio José Gomes this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Estrela are significantly better at Estádio José Gomes than their overall form suggests.
SC Braga — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, SC Braga have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Estrela have won 0, SC Braga 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Estrela trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 49% versus SC Braga 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 47% | SC Braga 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 0.96 xG and SC Braga 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.008 / defence 1.196 | SC Braga attack 1.236 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.202. SC Braga's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Estrela games / 51 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 19% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 56%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | SC Braga 1.79. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 50% | SC Braga 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 19% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Estrela 0.96 / SC Braga 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 1.008 / def 1.196 | SC Braga attack 1.236 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.78
SC Braga xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs SC Braga kick off?
Estrela vs SC Braga kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs SC Braga?
Estrela 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Estrela vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs SC Braga part of?
Estrela vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 19% chance of winning, SC Braga a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estrela and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and SC Braga?
Record (3 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 1 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Estrela and SC Braga in?
Estrela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. SC Braga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estrela's attack rating (1.01) and SC Braga's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
19%
5.17
25%
3.98
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.74
1.78
SC Braga xG
5.17
19%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
3%
30.59
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Estrela and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Estrela and 1.78 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Estrela have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 11W 16D 24L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga's form line: 30W 9D 12L from 51 games, 1.94 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Braga are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estrela.
Venue Form
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (10W 5D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Estrela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Braga have gone 17W 3D 5L from 25 away games — 2.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estrela are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Braga in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 11W 16D 24L in their last 51 games (0.96 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 30W 9D 12L in their last 51 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.40 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when SC Braga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estrela's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Estrela
3
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and SC Braga?
From 7 meetings on record, Estrela have won 1, SC Braga have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2026, when Estrela 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 60%, SC Braga 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Estrela and 68% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Estrela's games and 56% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estrela vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Estrela's matches and 68% of SC Braga's.
Do Estrela and SC Braga tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Estrela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Estrela 0-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 0.96 xG and SC Braga 1.78 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estrela fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against SC Braga attack 1.24 / defence 0.68, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 19% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 56%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 47%, SC Braga 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.