Estrela 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estrela and GIL Vicente meet at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Estrela (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio José Gomes, Estrela have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Estrela, 0 for GIL Vicente and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Estrela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 54% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 51% | GIL Vicente 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.34 xG and GIL Vicente 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.878 / defence 1.334 | GIL Vicente attack 0.818 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Estrela games / 67 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 36% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 38%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 80% | GIL Vicente 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 36% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Estrela 1.34 / GIL Vicente 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.878 / def 1.334 | GIL Vicente attack 0.818 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.38
GIL Vicente xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Estrela vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Estrela 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Estrela vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Estrela vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 36% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estrela and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
Record (1 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Estrela and GIL Vicente in?
Estrela (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estrela's attack at 0.88x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.82x) against Estrela's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.89
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.72
1.38
GIL Vicente xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Estrela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Estrela and 1.38 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estrela come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 12D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.11 PPG from 35 outings (10W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Estrela against 1.11 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Estrela's home form reads 6W 3D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.65 points per game from 17 outings (3W 2D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estrela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estrela are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Current Season
GIL Vicente
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 7W 12D 16L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or GIL Vicente away?
Estrela's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.24 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estrela
3
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Estrela 2-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 65%, GIL Vicente 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Estrela and 59% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Estrela's games and 47% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estrela vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Estrela's matches and 59% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Estrela and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estrela defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estrela beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.34 xG and GIL Vicente 1.38 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against GIL Vicente attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 36% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 38%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Estrela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 51%, GIL Vicente 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 0.94 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.