Estrela 1-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estrela at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estrela face Chaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chaves travel to Estádio José Gomes to take on Estrela in Primeira Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estrela stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Estrela have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chaves — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Chaves's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estrela 0.90 PPG, Chaves 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Estrela, 0 for Chaves and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Estrela 2–2 Chaves — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Estrela in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chaves in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 54% versus Chaves 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 46% | Chaves 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estrela surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Chaves have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.64 xG and Chaves 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.894 / defence 1.286 | Chaves attack 0.749 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.220. Chaves's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Estrela's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chaves's projected output up. Data: built from Estrela's last 22 games and Chaves's last 56.
Result probabilities: Estrela 48% | Draw 24% | Chaves 27%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.07 | Draw 4.10 | Chaves 3.66. Estrela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estrela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estrela's last 10 home games and Chaves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estrela 60% (last 10 home games) | Chaves 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 48% | Draw 24% | Chaves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Estrela 1.64 / Chaves 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.894 / def 1.286 | Chaves attack 0.749 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Estrela (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Chaves xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estrela vs Chaves FAQs
What time does Estrela vs Chaves kick off?
Estrela vs Chaves kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Chaves?
Estrela 1 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Estrela vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Chaves part of?
Estrela vs Chaves is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 48% chance of winning, Chaves a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Estrela and Chaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estrela vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estrela's attack rating (0.89) and Chaves's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estrela's last 22 games and Chaves's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.10
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.82
1.18
Chaves xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estrela vs Chaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Estrela and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Estrela and 1.18 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 6W 6D 12L from 24 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 15L across 24 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estrela on 1.00 PPG, Chaves on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 5W 1D 6L from their last 12 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 1W 2D 9L across their last 12 away games, a 0.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estrela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 0.96 scored and 2.21 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Chaves
Blended
Estrela (Home) vs Chaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estrela
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Estrela vs Chaves Form FAQs
What form are Estrela and Chaves in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Chaves have gone 4W 5D 15L in their last 24 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Chaves away?
Estrela's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.33 PPG; Chaves away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Estrela
2
Draws
0
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Estrela vs Chaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Chaves?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Estrela have won 0, Chaves have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Chaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Estrela 1-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 58%, Chaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Estrela) and 50% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Chaves in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estrela vs Chaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estrela and Chaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Estrela's recent matches and 33% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estrela and Chaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Estrela's recent games and 50% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Chaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Estrela's recent matches and 50% of Chaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estrela and Chaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 23, as Estrela and Chaves drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.64 xG and Chaves 1.18 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Chaves attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 48% | Draw 24% | Chaves 27%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 46%, Chaves 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estrela 1.00 PPG, Chaves 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chaves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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