Estoril 0-3 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vizela at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vizela make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vizela have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Vizela are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Estoril 1W, Vizela 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 45% versus Vizela 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 38% | Vizela 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.22 xG and Vizela 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.902 / defence 1.296 | Vizela attack 0.994 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 0.990. Data: 56 Estoril games / 56 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 35% | Draw 27% | Vizela 38%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Vizela 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vizela as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 50% | Vizela 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 35% | Draw 27% | Vizela 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Estoril 1.22 / Vizela 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.902 / def 1.296 | Vizela attack 0.994 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.338 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Vizela (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Vizela xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Vizela kick off?
Estoril vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Vizela?
Estoril 0 - 3 Vizela.
Where is Estoril vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Vizela part of?
Estoril vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 35% chance of winning, Vizela a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estoril and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vizela?
Record (3 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 1 | Vizela 1W.
What form are Estoril and Vizela in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Vizela (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.90x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.99x) against Estoril's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.70
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.49
1.27
Vizela xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Estoril and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Estoril and 1.27 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 16D 25L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 1.05 PPG from 56 outings (14W 17D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Estoril against 1.05 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Estoril's home form reads 7W 10D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 0.96 points per game from 27 outings (6W 8D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.07 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Vizela in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 15W 16D 25L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Vizela have gone 14W 17D 25L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Vizela away?
Estoril's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.15 PPG; Vizela away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 0-3 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, Vizela have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Vizela 3-3 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 56%, Vizela 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Estoril) and 56% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Estoril's games and 67% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Estoril's recent games and 56% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Vizela tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vizela in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vizela run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Estoril 0-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.22 xG and Vizela 1.27 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Vizela outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.90 / defence 1.30 against Vizela attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 35% | Draw 27% | Vizela 38%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 38%, Vizela 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vizela's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.09 PPG, Vizela 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.