Estoril 1-3 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Estoril against 1.10 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Estoril 2W, GIL Vicente 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 3–5 with GIL Vicente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 46% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 47% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 2.00 xG and GIL Vicente 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.148 / defence 0.967 | GIL Vicente attack 0.812 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.188. Data: 55 Estoril games / 55 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 62% | Draw 21% | GIL Vicente 17%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | GIL Vicente 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 40% | GIL Vicente 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 62% | Draw 21% | GIL Vicente 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Estoril 2.00 / GIL Vicente 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.148 / def 0.967 | GIL Vicente attack 0.812 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Estoril (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.93
GIL Vicente xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Estoril 1 - 3 GIL Vicente.
Where is Estoril vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs GIL Vicente part of?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 62% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estoril and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
Record (5 meetings): Estoril 2W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (1.15) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.81x) against Estoril's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.78
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.94
0.93
GIL Vicente xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
2%
44.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Estoril and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Estoril and 0.93 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 16W 8D 31L from 55 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 28L across 55 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Estoril against 1.07 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 12W 3D 12L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 5W 1D 21L across 27 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 16W 8D 31L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or GIL Vicente away?
Estoril's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.44 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Estoril
3
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 37%, GIL Vicente 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estoril) and 63% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 26% of games; GIL Vicente in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Estoril's recent matches and 56% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Estoril's matches and 63% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Estoril and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Estoril 1-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 2.00 xG and GIL Vicente 0.93 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.0 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against GIL Vicente attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 62% | Draw 21% | GIL Vicente 17%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a GIL Vicente win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 47%, GIL Vicente 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.02 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.