Estoril 0-0 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estoril face AVS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estoril host AVS at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Estoril have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Estoril at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AVS stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
AVS's away record over their last 5 away games: 1W 1D 3L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estoril at 0.90 PPG versus AVS's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Estoril in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
AVS in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 33% versus AVS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 50% | AVS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.84 xG and AVS 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.974 / defence 1.065 | AVS attack 0.845 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.176. AVS's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estoril's projected output up. Data: built from Estoril's last 44 games and AVS's last 10.
Result probabilities: Estoril 56% | Draw 23% | AVS 22%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.80 | Draw 4.39 | AVS 4.63. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estoril 20% (last 10 home games) | AVS 80% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 56% | Draw 23% | AVS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Estoril 1.84 / AVS 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.974 / def 1.065 | AVS attack 0.845 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Estoril (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.06
AVS xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs AVS FAQs
What time does Estoril vs AVS kick off?
Estoril vs AVS kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs AVS?
Estoril 0 - 0 AVS.
Where is Estoril vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs AVS part of?
Estoril vs AVS is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 56% chance of winning, AVS a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estoril and AVS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estoril vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estoril's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against AVS's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 44 games and AVS's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.39
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.90
1.06
AVS xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs AVS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Estoril and 1.06 for AVS, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs AVS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 2W 3D 7L from 12 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
AVS, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 5L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AVS by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AVS's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across their last 5 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AVS's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 1.08 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
AVS
Blended
Estoril (Home) vs AVS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Estoril vs AVS Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and AVS in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while AVS have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or AVS away?
Estoril's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.40 PPG; AVS away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2025, when Estoril won AVS 0-3 Estoril.
Estoril's record when hosting AVS specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
1
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs AVS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and AVS?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 2, AVS have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estoril and AVS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: AVS 3-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and AVS?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 40%, AVS 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Estoril and 80% for AVS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs AVS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and AVS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Estoril's games and 80% of AVS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Estoril and AVS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Estoril's matches and 80% of AVS's.
Do Estoril and AVS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Estoril's recent matches and 100% of AVS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estoril's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and AVS finished level at 0-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.84 xG and AVS 1.06 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.8 short of their projected output. AVS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against AVS attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 56% | Draw 23% | AVS 22%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 50%, AVS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AVS's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AVS arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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