Chaves 2-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chaves at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Pacos Ferreira at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chaves at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pacos Ferreira — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacos Ferreira away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Chaves carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chaves, 0 for Pacos Ferreira and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chaves in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pacos Ferreira in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 48% versus Pacos Ferreira 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 33% | Pacos Ferreira 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.30 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.921 / defence 1.071 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.966 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.057. Data: 31 Chaves games / 65 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 41% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 31%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Pacos Ferreira 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chaves at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 50% | Pacos Ferreira 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 41% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Chaves 1.30 / Pacos Ferreira 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.921 / def 1.071 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.966 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Chaves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Pacos Ferreira xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira?
Chaves 2 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 41% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chaves and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (1 meetings): Chaves 0W | Draws 1 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are Chaves and Pacos Ferreira in?
Chaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chaves's attack at 0.92x the league average against Pacos Ferreira's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacos Ferreira's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.64
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.40
1.09
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chaves and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Chaves and 1.09 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 12W 10D 11L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Pacos Ferreira's form line: 5W 5D 23L from 33 games, 0.61 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Chaves are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pacos Ferreira.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, Pacos Ferreira have gone 3W 3D 10L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.70 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Current Season
Pacos Ferreira
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 12W 10D 11L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 5W 5D 23L in their last 33 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Chaves's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.44 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Chaves or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
0
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Pacos Ferreira?
From 2 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Chaves 2-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Pacos Ferreira?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 56%, Pacos Ferreira 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Chaves) and 50% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Chaves keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Chaves's recent matches and 50% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Chaves's recent games and 50% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Pacos Ferreira 2-0 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.30 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.09 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 41% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 31%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 33%, Pacos Ferreira 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.61. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.