Casa Pia 0-1 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Tondela.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tondela make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Casa Pia's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Casa Pia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Tondela have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Tondela away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Casa Pia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended Casa Pia 2–1 Tondela — a Casa Pia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Tondela half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 48% versus Tondela 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 48% | Tondela 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.57 xG and Tondela 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.824 / defence 0.997 | Tondela attack 0.833 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.161. Tondela's defence rating of 1.288 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Casa Pia's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 65 games and Tondela's last 31.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 51% | Draw 25% | Tondela 23%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 1.94 | Draw 3.95 | Tondela 4.30. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 60% (last 10 home games) | Tondela 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 51% | Draw 25% | Tondela 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Casa Pia 1.57 / Tondela 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.824 / def 0.997 | Tondela attack 0.833 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Tondela xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Casa Pia vs Tondela FAQs
What time does Casa Pia vs Tondela kick off?
Casa Pia vs Tondela kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Tondela.
Where is Casa Pia vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Tondela part of?
Casa Pia vs Tondela is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 32) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 51% chance of winning, Tondela a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Casa Pia and Tondela will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Casa Pia vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.82x the league average against Tondela's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.83x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Casa Pia's last 65 games and Tondela's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
51%
1.94
25%
3.95
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.53
0.96
Tondela xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
20.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Casa Pia vs Tondela Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.96 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia come into this having played 31 games, going 5W 11D 15L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Tondela sit at 0.71 PPG from 31 outings (4W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.71 for Tondela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Casa Pia's home form reads 2W 8D 5L across their last 15 home games, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Tondela have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 15 away games (3W 3D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 0.74 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Current Season
Tondela
Current Season
Casa Pia (Home) vs Tondela (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Casa Pia
Current Season
Tondela
Current Season
❓ Casa Pia vs Tondela Form FAQs
What form are Casa Pia and Tondela in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 5W 11D 15L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Tondela have gone 4W 10D 17L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Tondela away?
Casa Pia's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.93 PPG; Tondela away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
0
Draws
1
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Casa Pia vs Tondela H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Tondela?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Casa Pia have won 1, Tondela have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Tondela last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Casa Pia 0-1 Tondela.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 60%, Tondela 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Casa Pia) and 67% (Tondela).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 40% of games; Tondela in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Casa Pia vs Tondela Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Casa Pia and Tondela matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 33% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Casa Pia and Tondela matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Casa Pia's recent games and 67% of Tondela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Tondela matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 67% of Tondela's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tondela defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.57 xG and Tondela 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Tondela attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 51% | Draw 25% | Tondela 23%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Tondela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 48%, Tondela 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tondela's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 0.84 PPG, Tondela 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tondela win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Tondela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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