Casa Pia 0-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Monday 8 April 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Estoril have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Casa Pia, 1.10 for Estoril — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Estoril — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 39% versus Estoril 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 39% | Estoril 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.07 xG and Estoril 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.549 / defence 0.875 | Estoril attack 1.045 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.261. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.549 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Casa Pia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Casa Pia games / 61 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 33% | Draw 29% | Estoril 37%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Estoril 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 20% | Estoril 80%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 33% | Draw 29% | Estoril 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Casa Pia 1.07 / Estoril 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.549 / def 0.875 | Estoril attack 1.045 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Estoril (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Estoril xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Estoril kick off?
Casa Pia vs Estoril kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Casa Pia 0 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Casa Pia vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Estoril part of?
Casa Pia vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 33% chance of winning, Estoril a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Casa Pia and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Estoril?
Record (3 meetings): Casa Pia 0W | Draws 1 | Estoril 2W.
What form are Casa Pia and Estoril in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Estoril (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (1.04x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.41
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.22
1.15
Estoril xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.15 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 19W 14D 28L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 18W 9D 34L from 61 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.03 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
On the road, Estoril have gone 4W 6D 20L from 30 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estoril's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.25 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Estoril in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 19W 14D 28L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Estoril have gone 18W 9D 34L in their last 61 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Estoril away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.10 PPG; Estoril away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Estoril in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
4
Draws
3
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Estoril?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Estoril have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Estoril?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 37%, Estoril 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Casa Pia) and 47% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 43% of games; Estoril in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 57% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Casa Pia's recent games and 47% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Estoril tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Estoril in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Casa Pia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Estoril finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.07 xG and Estoril 1.15 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Estoril landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.55 / defence 0.88 against Estoril attack 1.04 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 33% | Draw 29% | Estoril 37%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 39%, Estoril 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estoril's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.16 PPG, Estoril 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.