Casa Pia 3-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Casa Pia stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Casa Pia 1.90 PPG, Benfica 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Casa Pia.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 48% versus Benfica 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 42% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Benfica 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.925 / defence 0.951 | Benfica attack 1.051 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.197. Benfica's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Casa Pia games / 52 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 30% | Draw 31% | Benfica 40%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Benfica 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 60% | Benfica 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 30% | Draw 31% | Benfica 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Casa Pia 1.00 / Benfica 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.925 / def 0.951 | Benfica attack 1.051 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Benfica (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Benfica xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Benfica kick off?
Casa Pia vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia 3 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Casa Pia vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Benfica part of?
Casa Pia vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 30% chance of winning, Benfica a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Casa Pia and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Record (5 meetings): Casa Pia 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Benfica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.93x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.26
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.20
1.20
Benfica xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.20 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 14D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.33 PPG from 52 outings (38W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 6W 9D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 1.88 points per game from 25 outings (14W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.29 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Benfica have gone 38W 7D 7L in their last 52 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.08 PPG; Benfica away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Benfica in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2026, when Benfica won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
From 9 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Benfica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 44%, Benfica 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Casa Pia) and 48% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 36%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 48% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Casa Pia's recent games and 48% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Benfica tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Benfica in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Benfica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Benfica 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Benfica 1.20 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Benfica attack 1.05 / defence 0.77, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 30% | Draw 31% | Benfica 40%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 42%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.