Casa Pia 3-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Benfica at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Benfica encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Casa Pia stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Casa Pia at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Benfica have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Benfica's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Casa Pia 1.90 PPG, Benfica 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Casa Pia.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Casa Pia 0–3 Benfica — a Benfica win.

Benfica have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Patterns

Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 48% versus Benfica 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 42% | Benfica 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Casa Pia surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Benfica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.00 xG and Benfica 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.925 / defence 0.951 | Benfica attack 1.051 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.197. Benfica bring a tight defence (rating 0.769, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Casa Pia's projected output down. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 52 games and Benfica's last 52.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 30% | Draw 31% | Benfica 40%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.38 | Draw 3.26 | Benfica 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Benfica 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 60% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 40% (last 10 away games).

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