Boavista 1-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Boavista have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Boavista are significantly better at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI than their overall form suggests.
Maritimo (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Boavista, 0.70 for Maritimo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Boavista — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Maritimo — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boavista 67% and Maritimo 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 58% | Maritimo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.48 xG and Maritimo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.985 / defence 1.222 | Maritimo attack 0.749 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.368. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Boavista's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Boavista games / 12 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 39% | Draw 33% | Maritimo 28%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Maritimo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 50% | Maritimo 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 39% | Draw 33% | Maritimo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Boavista 1.48 / Maritimo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.985 / def 1.222 | Maritimo attack 0.749 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Boavista (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Maritimo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Maritimo kick off?
Boavista vs Maritimo kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Maritimo?
Boavista 1 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Boavista vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Maritimo part of?
Boavista vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 39% chance of winning, Maritimo a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Boavista and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boavista and Maritimo in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Boavista's attack rating (0.98) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.75x) against Boavista's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.06
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.73
1.25
Maritimo xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Boavista and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Boavista and 1.25 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 5D 5L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Maritimo sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Boavista against 0.83 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Boavista's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Boavista are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Maritimo have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Maritimo away?
Boavista's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.50 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Boavista
2
Draws
2
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Boavista have won 0, Maritimo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Maritimo 4-2 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 50%, Maritimo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Boavista) and 67% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Boavista keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Maritimo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Boavista's games and 67% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Boavista's recent games and 67% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Maritimo tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and Maritimo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 13, as Boavista and Maritimo drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.48 xG and Maritimo 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Maritimo attack 0.75 / defence 1.40, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 39% | Draw 33% | Maritimo 28%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 58%, Maritimo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 0.92 PPG, Maritimo 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.