Benfica 2-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benfica at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs Sporting CP fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Sporting CP at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sporting CP stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Sporting CP have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.50 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.80 (Sporting CP). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Benfica have won 1, Sporting CP 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
Sporting CP in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 36% versus Sporting CP 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 59% | Sporting CP 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.37 xG and Sporting CP 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.155 / defence 0.720 | Sporting CP attack 1.251 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.245. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Benfica's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Benfica games / 44 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 42% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 31%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sporting CP 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Benfica 30% | Sporting CP 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 42% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Benfica 1.37 / Sporting CP 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.155 / def 0.720 | Sporting CP attack 1.251 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Benfica (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sporting CP xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Sporting CP kick off?
Benfica vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Benfica 2 - 1 Sporting CP.
Where is Benfica vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Sporting CP part of?
Benfica vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 42% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benfica and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Sporting CP?
Record (4 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 2 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Benfica and Sporting CP in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Sporting CP (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.73
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.49
1.12
Sporting CP xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Benfica and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Benfica and 1.12 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica's recent record stands at 36W 4D 4L from 44 games, a 2.55 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 32W 6D 6L across 44 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benfica on 2.55 PPG, Sporting CP on 2.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 18W 2D 1L from 21 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 13W 4D 4L across 21 trips, a 2.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.11 scored and 0.93 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Sporting CP's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games; Sporting CP in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 36W 4D 4L in their last 44 games (2.55 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 32W 6D 6L in their last 44 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Sporting CP away?
Benfica's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.67 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Benfica or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Sporting CP runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica's record when hosting Sporting CP specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Benfica
4
Draws
3
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, Sporting CP have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 43%, Sporting CP 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Benfica and 57% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sporting CP in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Benfica's recent matches and 52% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Benfica's matches and 57% of Sporting CP's.
Do Benfica and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Sporting CP 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Sporting CP 2-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.37 xG and Sporting CP 1.12 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Sporting CP attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 42% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 31%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 59%, Sporting CP 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benfica 2.55 PPG, Sporting CP 2.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. Sporting CP (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.