Benfica 2-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benfica at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santa Clara make the trip to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to face Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Benfica (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Santa Clara have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Santa Clara have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Benfica register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Santa Clara in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Benfica, 0 for Santa Clara and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 5–0 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Benfica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Santa Clara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benfica 62% and Santa Clara 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Santa Clara 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.38 xG and Santa Clara 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.485 / defence 1.113 | Santa Clara attack 0.852 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.418. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.485 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Benfica games / 21 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 59% | Draw 21% | Santa Clara 19%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Santa Clara 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 70% | Santa Clara 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 59% | Draw 21% | Santa Clara 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Benfica 2.38 / Santa Clara 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.485 / def 1.113 | Santa Clara attack 0.852 / def 1.470 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Benfica (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Santa Clara xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Santa Clara kick off?
Benfica vs Santa Clara kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Santa Clara?
Benfica 2 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Benfica vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Santa Clara part of?
Benfica vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 59% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Benfica and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Santa Clara?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | Santa Clara 0W.
What form are Benfica and Santa Clara in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.49) and Santa Clara's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santa Clara's attack (0.85x) against Benfica's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.68
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.72
1.34
Santa Clara xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
9%
10.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
2%
55.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Benfica and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Benfica and 1.34 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Santa Clara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benfica come into this having played 21 games, going 15W 2D 4L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Benfica's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.19 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Santa Clara in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 15W 2D 4L in their last 21 games (2.24 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Santa Clara away?
Benfica's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 1.90 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Benfica or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-5 on 11 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 7, Santa Clara have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Santa Clara?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Benfica, 70% for Santa Clara — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Benfica and 70% for Santa Clara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Benfica's games and 70% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Benfica's matches and 70% of Santa Clara's.
Do Benfica and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Santa Clara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Santa Clara 2-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.38 xG and Santa Clara 1.34 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.49 / defence 1.11 against Santa Clara attack 0.85 / defence 1.47, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 59% | Draw 21% | Santa Clara 19%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, Santa Clara 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Santa Clara's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.