Benfica 4-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Moreirense.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio da Luz plays host to Benfica versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benfica have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio da Luz, Benfica have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio da Luz.
Moreirense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Benfica's favour (2.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Benfica, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Moreirense — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 4–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 52% versus Moreirense 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 67% | Moreirense 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.97 xG and Moreirense 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.377 / defence 0.749 | Moreirense attack 0.943 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.139. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Benfica games / 64 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 65% | Draw 21% | Moreirense 14%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Moreirense 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 50% | Moreirense 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio da Luz • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 65% | Draw 21% | Moreirense 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Benfica 1.97 / Moreirense 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.377 / def 0.749 | Moreirense attack 0.943 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Benfica (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Moreirense xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Moreirense kick off?
Benfica vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Estádio da Luz.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Moreirense?
Benfica 4 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Benfica vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Luz.
What competition is Benfica vs Moreirense part of?
Benfica vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 65% chance of winning, Moreirense a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Benfica and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Moreirense?
Record (7 meetings): Benfica 4W | Draws 3 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are Benfica and Moreirense in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Moreirense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benfica's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.94x) against Benfica's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.80
14%
6.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.77
0.80
Moreirense xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.90
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
2%
49.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Benfica and 0.80 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benfica come into this having played 64 games, going 46W 14D 4L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 1.23 PPG from 64 outings (21W 16D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Benfica's home form reads 24W 7D 1L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 0.94 points per game from 32 outings (8W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
Moreirense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 46W 14D 4L in their last 64 games (2.38 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Moreirense away?
Benfica's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.47 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Benfica or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Moreirense in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Benfica
3
Draws
0
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Moreirense?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Moreirense have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Benfica 4-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Moreirense?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 50%, Moreirense 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Benfica and 53% for Moreirense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Moreirense in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benfica's recent matches and 53% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Benfica's matches and 53% of Moreirense's.
Do Benfica and Moreirense tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Moreirense 4-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.97 xG and Moreirense 0.80 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.38 / defence 0.75 against Moreirense attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 65% | Draw 21% | Moreirense 14%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Moreirense 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Moreirense's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.72 average — above their attacking norm. Moreirense (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.