Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees GIL Vicente travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benfica, 1 for GIL Vicente and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
GIL Vicente trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 52% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 61% | GIL Vicente 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 3.16 xG and GIL Vicente 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.831 / defence 0.943 | GIL Vicente attack 1.049 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.083. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.831 — their λ of 3.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Benfica games / 46 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 78% | Draw 12% | GIL Vicente 9%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.28 | Draw 8.33 | GIL Vicente 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (3.16 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 50% | GIL Vicente 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 78% | Draw 12% | GIL Vicente 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 63% | xG Benfica 3.16 / GIL Vicente 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.831 / def 0.943 | GIL Vicente attack 1.049 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Benfica (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.16
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.07
GIL Vicente xG
63%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Benfica 3 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Benfica vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs GIL Vicente part of?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 78% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 9% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Benfica and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Record (2 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in?
Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.83) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 3.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 3-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
78%
1.28
12%
8.01
9%
10.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
3 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.16
Benfica xG
Total xG
4.23
1.07
GIL Vicente xG
1.28
78%
Home win
8.01
12%
Draw
10.75
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
4%
23.57
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Benfica and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 3.16 expected goals for Benfica and 1.07 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 34W 6D 6L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente's form line: 15W 15D 16L from 46 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (15W 3D 4L).
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 8W 7D 7L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.24 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 34W 6D 6L in their last 46 games (2.35 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 15D 16L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or GIL Vicente away?
Benfica's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.18 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Benfica or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
0
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 64%, GIL Vicente 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Benfica and 59% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Benfica's games and 64% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Benfica's matches and 59% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Benfica and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 3-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 3.16 xG and GIL Vicente 1.07 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.83 / defence 0.94 against GIL Vicente attack 1.05 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 78% | Draw 12% | GIL Vicente 9%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 61%, GIL Vicente 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.