Benfica 5-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees GIL Vicente travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Benfica have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while GIL Vicente have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
GIL Vicente trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 45% versus GIL Vicente 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | GIL Vicente 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.95 xG and GIL Vicente 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.549 / defence 0.718 | GIL Vicente attack 0.769 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.191. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.549 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Benfica games / 40 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 68% | Draw 20% | GIL Vicente 12%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | GIL Vicente 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | GIL Vicente 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 68% | Draw 20% | GIL Vicente 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 41% | xG Benfica 1.95 / GIL Vicente 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.549 / def 0.718 | GIL Vicente attack 0.769 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Benfica (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.66
GIL Vicente xG
41%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Benfica 5 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Benfica vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs GIL Vicente part of?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 68% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Benfica and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Record (6 meetings): Benfica 5W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.55) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
68%
1.47
20%
4.92
12%
8.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.61
0.66
GIL Vicente xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
8.58
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
2%
60.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Benfica and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Benfica and 0.66 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 29W 6D 5L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente's form line: 10W 13D 17L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.80 PPG from 20 outings (18W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.33 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 4D 13L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.20 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 games (2.33 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 10W 13D 17L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or GIL Vicente away?
Benfica's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.80 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Benfica or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
0
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 40%, GIL Vicente 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Benfica and 55% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Benfica's recent matches and 45% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Benfica's matches and 55% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Benfica and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 5-1 hammering of GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 5-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.95 xG and GIL Vicente 0.66 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.55 / defence 0.72 against GIL Vicente attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 68% | Draw 20% | GIL Vicente 12%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.