Benfica 1-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Estoril.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Benfica welcome Estoril to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Estoril away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Benfica, 0 for Estoril and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 5–1 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Estoril trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 47% versus Estoril 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 61% | Estoril 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.61 xG and Estoril 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.561 / defence 0.929 | Estoril attack 0.853 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.060. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.561 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Benfica games / 62 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 75% | Draw 15% | Estoril 10%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Estoril 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 60% | Estoril 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 75% | Draw 15% | Estoril 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 53% | xG Benfica 2.61 / Estoril 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.561 / def 0.929 | Estoril attack 0.853 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Benfica (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Estoril xG
53%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Estoril kick off?
Benfica vs Estoril kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Benfica 1 - 0 Estoril.
Where is Benfica vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Estoril part of?
Benfica vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 75% chance of winning, Estoril a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benfica and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
Record (3 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 1 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Benfica and Estoril in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Estoril (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.56x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.65
10%
10.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.45
0.84
Estoril xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.65
15%
Draw
10.27
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
7%
13.56
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
1%
139.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Benfica and 0.84 for Estoril, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 62 games, going 46W 7D 9L for 2.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.03 PPG from 62 outings (16W 16D 30L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 22W 4D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.97 points per game from 31 outings (8W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 0.95 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
Estoril
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Estoril in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 46W 7D 9L in their last 62 games (2.34 PPG), while Estoril have gone 16W 16D 30L in their last 62 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Estoril away?
Benfica's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.26 PPG; Estoril away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Benfica or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Estoril in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 9 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, Estoril have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Estoril 1-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estoril?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 61%, Estoril 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Benfica) and 32% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Estoril in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Benfica's recent matches and 39% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Benfica's recent games and 32% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Estoril tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Estoril in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estoril 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 1-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.61 xG and Estoril 0.84 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benfica fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Estoril landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.56 / defence 0.93 against Estoril attack 0.85 / defence 1.27, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 75% | Draw 15% | Estoril 10%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 61%, Estoril 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estoril's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.