Belenenses 1-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Belenenses take on GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Belenenses welcome GIL Vicente to Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Belenenses have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Belenenses have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. GIL Vicente's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Belenenses's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Belenenses in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Belenenses 40% | GIL Vicente 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Belenenses 20% | GIL Vicente 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 0.93 xG and GIL Vicente 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.921 / defence 1.243 | GIL Vicente attack 0.675 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.115. Data: 5 Belenenses games / 5 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 30% | Draw 40% | GIL Vicente 30%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 3.33 | Draw 2.50 | GIL Vicente 3.33. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Belenenses 40% | GIL Vicente 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 30% | Draw 40% | GIL Vicente 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Belenenses 0.93 / GIL Vicente 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.921 / def 1.243 | GIL Vicente attack 0.675 / def 1.043 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
0.94
GIL Vicente xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Belenenses vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs GIL Vicente?
Belenenses 1 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Belenenses vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What competition is Belenenses vs GIL Vicente part of?
Belenenses vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 30% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 30% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Belenenses and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and GIL Vicente in?
Belenenses (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Belenenses's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.37
40%
2.48
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Belenenses xG
Total xG
1.86
0.94
GIL Vicente xG
3.37
30%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 14.5 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Belenenses and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Belenenses and 0.94 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Belenenses's recent record stands at 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Belenenses, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Belenenses heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Belenenses are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente in 20%.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Belenenses or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Belenenses have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Belenenses and GIL Vicente runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
1
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and GIL Vicente?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Belenenses 40% BTTS, GIL Vicente 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Belenenses and 40% for GIL Vicente.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 40%; Belenenses have failed to score in 60% of games; GIL Vicente in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Belenenses's recent matches and 20% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Belenenses vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Belenenses's recent games and 40% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Belenenses and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Belenenses and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Regular Season - 6, as Belenenses and GIL Vicente drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 0.93 xG and GIL Vicente 0.94 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against GIL Vicente attack 0.68 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 30% | Draw 40% | GIL Vicente 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 20%, GIL Vicente 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.