Arouca 1-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arouca at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pacos Ferreira make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to face Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Arouca (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pacos Ferreira have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Arouca. A 0.50 PPG lead over Pacos Ferreira (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Arouca, 1 for Pacos Ferreira and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 47% versus Pacos Ferreira 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 45% | Pacos Ferreira 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.64 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.097 / defence 0.956 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.958 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.056. Data: 58 Arouca games / 58 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 53% | Draw 25% | Pacos Ferreira 22%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Pacos Ferreira 4.55. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Arouca 30% | Pacos Ferreira 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 53% | Draw 25% | Pacos Ferreira 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Arouca 1.64 / Pacos Ferreira 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.097 / def 0.956 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.958 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Arouca (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pacos Ferreira xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Arouca 1 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 53% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arouca and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (3 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 2 | Pacos Ferreira 1W.
What form are Arouca and Pacos Ferreira in?
Arouca (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Arouca's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Pacos Ferreira's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.96x) against Arouca's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.07
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.61
0.97
Pacos Ferreira xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
23.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Arouca and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Arouca and 0.97 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 17W 17D 24L from 58 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacos Ferreira, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 31L across 58 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Arouca against 0.91 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 12W 5D 11L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacos Ferreira's away record stands at 6W 6D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.81 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 13W 14D 31L in their last 58 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Arouca's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.46 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arouca
3
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Arouca have won 0, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Arouca 1-1 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Pacos Ferreira?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 39%, Pacos Ferreira 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Arouca) and 36% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Arouca keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Arouca have failed to score in 32% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Arouca's recent matches and 36% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Arouca's recent games and 36% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca and Pacos Ferreira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca and Pacos Ferreira finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.64 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.97 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 53% | Draw 25% | Pacos Ferreira 22%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 45%, Pacos Ferreira 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.17 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.