Arouca 3-2 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitória SC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Vitória SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arouca and Vitória SC meet at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Vitória SC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Vitória SC are 0.60 PPG clear of Arouca in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Vitória SC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Vitória SC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 54% | Vitória SC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.25 xG and Vitória SC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.818 / defence 1.271 | Vitória SC attack 0.804 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.257. Data: 54 Arouca games / 54 Vitória SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 36% | Draw 27% | Vitória SC 37%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Vitória SC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitória SC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitória SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Arouca 50% | Vitória SC 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 36% | Draw 27% | Vitória SC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Arouca 1.25 / Vitória SC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.818 / def 1.271 | Vitória SC attack 0.804 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Vitória SC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Vitória SC kick off?
Arouca vs Vitória SC kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Vitória SC?
Arouca 3 - 2 Vitória SC.
Where is Arouca vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Vitória SC part of?
Arouca vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 36% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arouca and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Vitória SC?
Record (8 meetings): Arouca 2W | Draws 3 | Vitória SC 3W.
What form are Arouca and Vitória SC in?
Arouca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Vitória SC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.82x the league average against Vitória SC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.80x) against Arouca's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.73
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Vitória SC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Arouca and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Arouca and 1.28 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arouca come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 16D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitória SC sit at 1.52 PPG from 54 outings (22W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitória SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Arouca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Arouca's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitória SC have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Arouca are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 14W 16D 24L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 22W 16D 16L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Vitória SC away?
Vitória SC's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.15 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Arouca or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Arouca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
3
Draws
3
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Vitória SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, Vitória SC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Vitória SC 0-1 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Vitória SC?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vitória SC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 50%, Vitória SC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Arouca) and 31% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: Vitória SC in 31%; Arouca have failed to score in 31% of games; Vitória SC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Vitória SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arouca's recent matches and 35% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Arouca's recent games and 31% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Vitória SC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Vitória SC 3-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.25 xG and Vitória SC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.82 / defence 1.27 against Vitória SC attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 36% | Draw 27% | Vitória SC 37%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 54%, Vitória SC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Vitória SC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.