Arouca 2-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arouca at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Arouca plays host to Arouca versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arouca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Boavista have posted 0W 2D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Arouca against 1.10 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arouca have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Boavista in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Boavista — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Boavista 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 54% | Boavista 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.70 xG and Boavista 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.063 / defence 1.131 | Boavista attack 0.846 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.261. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Arouca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Arouca games / 11 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 45% | Draw 31% | Boavista 24%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Boavista 4.17. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 60% | Boavista 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 45% | Draw 31% | Boavista 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Arouca 1.70 / Boavista 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.063 / def 1.131 | Boavista attack 0.846 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Arouca (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Boavista xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Boavista kick off?
Arouca vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Boavista?
Arouca 2 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Arouca vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Boavista part of?
Arouca vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 45% chance of winning, Boavista a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Arouca and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Boavista?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arouca and Boavista in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Boavista (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Arouca's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.85x) against Arouca's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.26
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.90
1.21
Boavista xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Arouca and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Arouca and 1.21 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Arouca against 1.00 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Arouca's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Arouca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Boavista's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.27 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Boavista in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Boavista have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Boavista away?
Arouca's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.40 PPG; Boavista away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Arouca go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 0-4 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Arouca
1
Draws
2
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Arouca have won 5, Boavista have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Arouca 4-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Boavista?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Arouca, 80% for Boavista — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Arouca and 80% for Boavista. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Arouca's games and 80% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arouca vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Arouca's matches and 80% of Boavista's.
Do Arouca and Boavista tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Boavista in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Boavista 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.70 xG and Boavista 1.21 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Boavista attack 0.85 / defence 1.53, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 45% | Draw 31% | Boavista 24%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 54%, Boavista 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 0.91 PPG, Boavista 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.