Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Raków Częstochowa are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 48% versus Raków Częstochowa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 58% | Raków Częstochowa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 0.73 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.712 / defence 1.149 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.100 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.258. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Zaglebie Lubin games / 50 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 17% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 58%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Raków Częstochowa 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 17% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 0.73 / Raków Częstochowa 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.712 / def 1.149 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.100 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Raków Częstochowa xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 17% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.10x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
17%
5.90
25%
4.00
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.31
1.59
Raków Częstochowa xG
5.90
17%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
3%
28.90
28%
3.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.59 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 10D 25L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 2.14 PPG from 50 outings (32W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 7W 7D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.92 points per game from 24 outings (14W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.86 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 32W 11D 7L in their last 50 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.17 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 58%, Raków Częstochowa 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 54% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 38%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 33% of games; Raków Częstochowa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 42% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.73 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.59 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.78, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 17% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 58%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 58%, Raków Częstochowa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.