Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 4D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Radomiak Radom 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 54% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.900 / defence 1.135 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.844 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.233. Data: 13 Zaglebie Lubin games / 14 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 32% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 37%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Radomiak Radom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 67% | Radomiak Radom 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 32% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 / Radomiak Radom 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.900 / def 1.135 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.844 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Radomiak Radom xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 32% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.90) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
32%
3.10
31%
3.27
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.26
1.18
Radomiak Radom xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.18 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 2D 6L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.67 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zaglebie Lubin at 67%, Radomiak Radom at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 50% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.18 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 32% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 37%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 54%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.