Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Legia Warszawa — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Zaglebie Lubin at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Legia Warszawa away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.20 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Legia Warszawa, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 45% versus Legia Warszawa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 45% | Legia Warszawa 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zaglebie Lubin surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Legia Warszawa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.947 / defence 0.906 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.981 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.231. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 50 games and Legia Warszawa's last 49.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 26%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.27 | Draw 3.38 | Legia Warszawa 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 / Legia Warszawa 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.947 / def 0.906 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.981 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 17) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 44% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.98x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 50 games and Legia Warszawa's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.38
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
Legia Warszawa xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.09 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 19W 11D 19L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 26W 13D 10L from 49 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zaglebie Lubin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 23 home games (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 9W 6D 8L from their last 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.63 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 11D 19L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 13D 10L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.30 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Legia Warszawa on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
9
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Legia Warszawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 30%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 30% of games; Legia Warszawa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 61% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.09 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 45%, Legia Warszawa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.