Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 0D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.88 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.55 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.88 vs 1.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Jagiellonia in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 38% versus Jagiellonia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 62% | Jagiellonia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.89 xG and Jagiellonia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.178 / defence 1.245 | Jagiellonia attack 0.708 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.203. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Zaglebie Lubin games / 9 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jagiellonia 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Zaglebie Lubin (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 75% | Jagiellonia 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.89 / Jagiellonia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.178 / def 1.245 | Jagiellonia attack 0.708 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jagiellonia xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 57% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-0D-3L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (1.18) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.48
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.95
1.06
Jagiellonia xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
3%
31.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.06 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 0D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Jagiellonia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 2.00 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
6
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zaglebie Lubin at 67%, Jagiellonia at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zaglebie Lubin and 67% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 67% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 67% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.89 xG and Jagiellonia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.18 / defence 1.25 against Jagiellonia attack 0.71 / defence 1.39, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 57% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 21%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 62%, Jagiellonia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Jagiellonia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.