Wisla Plock 0-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 21 as Wisla Plock welcome Widzew Łódź to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 55% versus Widzew Łódź 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 20% | Widzew Łódź 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.43 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.917 / defence 0.824 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.963 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.170. Data: 20 Wisla Plock games / 54 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 23%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Widzew Łódź 4.35. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 40% | Widzew Łódź 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Wisla Plock 1.43 / Widzew Łódź 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.917 / def 0.824 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.963 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Widzew Łódź xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Wisla Plock 0 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 47% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.92x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.30
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.36
0.93
Widzew Łódź xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.93 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 8W 9D 3L from 20 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 12L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 2W 0D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.35 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 8W 9D 3L in their last 20 games (1.65 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.10 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
From 5 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 40%, Widzew Łódź 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Wisla Plock) and 70% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 30% of games; Widzew Łódź in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 60% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 70% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Wisla Plock 0-2 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.43 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 23%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 20%, Widzew Łódź 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.