Wisla Plock 2-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wisla Plock face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Orlen Stadion plays host to Wisla Plock versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 2W 8D 0L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Raków Częstochowa are 0.70 PPG clear of Wisla Plock in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Wisla Plock 1W, Raków Częstochowa 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 56% versus Raków Częstochowa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 17% | Raków Częstochowa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.08 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.781 / defence 0.789 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.261 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.236. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Raków Częstochowa have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Wisla Plock games / 52 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 31% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 38%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 30% | Raków Częstochowa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 31% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Wisla Plock 1.08 / Raków Częstochowa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.781 / def 0.789 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.261 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Raków Częstochowa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Wisla Plock 2 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 31% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (5 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-8D-0L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.26x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.20
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.31
1.23
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.23 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 7W 9D 2L from 18 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 7L across 18 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.61 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 6W 0D 3L across 9 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.44 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 7W 9D 2L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 9W 2D 7L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.00 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 7-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
3
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa?
From 7 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 33%, Raków Częstochowa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Wisla Plock) and 56% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 56% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 56% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.08 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.78 / defence 0.79 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 31% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 38%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 17%, Raków Częstochowa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.67 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.