Wisla Plock 2-4 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Jagiellonia at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jagiellonia — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 0 for Jagiellonia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 53% versus Jagiellonia 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 52% | Jagiellonia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.21 xG and Jagiellonia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.925 / defence 0.822 | Jagiellonia attack 0.921 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.010. Data: 62 Wisla Plock games / 62 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 34% | Jagiellonia 22%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Jagiellonia 4.55. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Wisla Plock dominate the H2H record, yet Jagiellonia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 40% | Jagiellonia 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 34% | Jagiellonia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Wisla Plock 1.21 / Jagiellonia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.925 / def 0.822 | Jagiellonia attack 0.921 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Jagiellonia xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock 2 - 4 Jagiellonia.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia part of?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 45% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
45%
2.23
34%
2.98
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
1.98
0.77
Jagiellonia xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.77 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 25W 9D 28L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Jagiellonia's form line: 16W 25D 21L from 62 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.35 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 2.00 PPG from 31 outings (19W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 15D 12L from 31 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.24 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 25W 9D 28L in their last 62 games (1.35 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 16W 25D 21L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Jagiellonia away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.00 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 42%, Jagiellonia 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Wisla Plock) and 48% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 64% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 48% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Wisla Plock 2-4 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.21 xG and Jagiellonia 0.77 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 34% | Jagiellonia 22%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 52%, Jagiellonia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.35 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.