Wisla Plock 1-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 40%, yet in-form Cracovia Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cracovia Krakow are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 58% versus Cracovia Krakow 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 60% | Cracovia Krakow 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.22 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.131 / defence 0.925 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.912 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.247. Data: 50 Wisla Plock games / 50 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 31%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Cracovia Krakow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Wisla Plock 1.22 / Cracovia Krakow 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.131 / def 0.925 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.912 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cracovia Krakow xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock 1 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 40% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.47
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.28
1.05
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.05 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 7D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.42 PPG from 50 outings (19W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.46 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wisla Plock's home form reads 16W 3D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.16 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 22W 7D 21L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.12 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 46%, Cracovia Krakow 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Wisla Plock) and 29% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 42% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 29% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Cracovia Krakow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.22 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.05 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.13 / defence 0.93 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 31%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 60%, Cracovia Krakow 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.46 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.