Wisla Plock 3-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Wisla Plock take on Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion im. Kazimierza Gorskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion im. Kazimierza Gorskiego — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cracovia Krakow are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Wisla Plock, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 48% versus Cracovia Krakow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 38% | Cracovia Krakow 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.83 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.644 / defence 1.013 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.752 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.224. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Wisla Plock games / 41 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 27% | Draw 41% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.70 | Draw 2.44 | Cracovia Krakow 3.12. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Gorskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 27% | Draw 41% | Cracovia Krakow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 38% | xG Wisla Plock 0.83 / Cracovia Krakow 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.644 / def 1.013 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.752 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cracovia Krakow xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Gorskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock 3 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Gorskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 27% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 32% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 3W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.69
41%
2.47
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
1.77
0.93
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.69
27%
Home win
2.47
41%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.93 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 12D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.18 PPG from 40 outings (10W 17D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.27 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wisla Plock's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (3W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.02 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 10W 17D 13L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.47 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wisla Plock go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
From 7 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Wisla Plock 3-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 21% BTTS, Cracovia Krakow 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Wisla Plock) and 47% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 47%; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 53% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 37% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 47% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Cracovia Krakow 3-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Gorskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 0.83 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.93 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.64 / defence 1.01 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.75 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 27% | Draw 41% | Cracovia Krakow 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 38%, Cracovia Krakow 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.27 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.